US import surge and EU export growth drove recovery, but global headwinds threaten stability in the second half of the year
Global trade rose by an estimated $300 billion in the first half of 2025, according to the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The increase reflects a modest but persistent recovery, even as geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty continue to cast a shadow on the outlook for the second half of the year.
The Global Trade Update, published on 8 July, shows that global trade in goods and services grew approximately 1.5% in Q1 2025, with projections suggesting 2% growth in Q2.
Services drive growth
Services remain the primary driver of global trade growth, with a 9% increase over the past four quarters.
UNCTAD notes that freight indices, which had dipped earlier in the year, have since recovered, highlighting ongoing resilience in global shipping.
However, with signs of slowing global economic growth, persistent geopolitical instability, and the introduction of new US tariffs, the second half of 2025 could bring renewed disruption to trade flows.
Developed economies reclaim momentum
A significant trend reversal emerged in Q1 2025 as developed economies outpaced developing ones in trade growth.
US imports surged by 14%, while European Union exports increased by 6%, driving much of the overall global rise.
Meanwhile, developing countries saw a decline in imports of 2%, with South–South trade remaining stagnant.
However, Africa stood out, with a 5% rise in exports and a 16% increase in intra-African trade, offering a bright spot amid an otherwise uneven landscape.
Trade imbalances widen
The report also highlights the widening of global trade imbalances.
The US posted a larger trade deficit over the past year, while China and the EU recorded growing surpluses.
Bilateral trade gaps between the US and key partners expanded sharply, including a $360 billion deficit with China, a $276 billion deficit with the EU, and a $116 billion deficit with Vietnam.
For the Middle East, rising trade flows through developed markets and Africa signal potential for increased regional transhipment and trade facilitation. However, rising tariffs, fragmented policy environments, and shifting production networks mean that agility and diversification will remain key themes for the region’s logistics players in the second half of 2025.
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